My comprehensive paper titled "The Miracle of 1998 and Beyond: ROK-Japan Security Cooperation," which has appeared in the current issue of The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, Winter 1998, is an accumulation of my thoughts and knowledge to date. The paper argues:

1) In retrospect, a sea change occurred in the ROK-Japan relations in 1965 when President Park Chung Hee and Prime Minister Hayato Ikeda normalized the diplomatic relations. An immense courage and vision were required for the then-leaders of both nations; the ultimate political decisions were made against the short-sighted public opinion.

2) President Kim Dae Jung's October 1998 visit to Japan has become a showcase of leadership, political courage and the authority to implement the vision of leadership. He conquered the heart of Japanese people without bringing in thousands of Korean troops, instead, he lifted himself up by praising the bilateral relations and changed the ROK-Japan relations forever by promoting a "further strengthen bilateral consultations on security policy and exchange in the field of defense."

3) We have witnessed in our life time. Now the ROK and Japan have entered an unprecedented security relationship. It is the time for the two to materialize what the ROK-Japan joint declaration promised.

4) A closer ROK-US-Japan tripartite security arrangement would have an immense value in the Asia-Pacific region. The trilateral naval cooperation will strengthen the existing ROK-US and the ROK-Japan bilateral alliances.

5) The triangle is a new architectonic material for the Asia-Pacific region where once-dreamed multilateral frameworks, such as James Baker's idea in the 1991 Foreign Affairs where he proposed to utilize bilateral alliances as spokes while the multinational frameworks such as ASEAN can be fabric to hinge these spokes, have faded out.

6) Why should naval cooperation come first? It is an ideal type as it can be promoted incrementally; features a variety of activities from non military to military cooperation, and the ROK Navy evolves with her slogan: "To the Sea, To the World!"

7) The author have been participating in a track-two ROK-Japan security dialogue between the Okazaki Institute and the Yoido Society for New Asia, as well as in a series of second-track trilateral security dialogues among the US-ROK-Japan with the YSNA and the Pacific Forum/CSIS, Korea Society for the past-year-and-half. For many months prior to the Kim-Obuchi declaration the author had witnessed various occasions of heart-to-heart exchange of ideas, and road-map making for future bi- and tri-lateral naval cooperation.

In sum, the paper represents a collective work of many security experts' rich intellectual arguments, discussions and various presentations; a product of a truly successful thirteen second-track conferences to date. It recommend the way we ought to be, as well as constraints to overcome; the final conference of this two-year project will be held in Seoul on 22-23 April 1999.

8) The author has many reasons, after having spent many exchanges, to be personally optimistic about the future security dialogues between the ROK and Japan especially among the younger generation of leaders as both share the same value; democracy, free market and free trade.

9) However, the author does not support a popular wishful thinking that the enhancement of security ties paves road for two peoples toward reconciliation. The 1965 diplomatic and the 1998 security relations' breakthrough were made by a rationale judgement; how much do we gain from it. But the removal of animosity, and apology/forgiveness stems from transcendent values.

10) The closer ROK-Japan security relations and emergence of the younger generation should certainly improve the ROK-Japan relations in general, but both peoples and leaders should make a different, conscious and organized effort to produce the third miracle; the ROK-Japan reconciliation; this is what China is interested in the most.

Ten KJ Shuttles: 1997-1999

My first introduction to our Korean counterpart, Professor Rhee Sangwoo, was January 1997. We sought to develop a ROK-Japan security dialogue to straighten the US-Japan security alliance which we considered the stabilizing element for the region and was in search for a good Korean partner. At that time, however, our plan to open dialogue with the Koreans was believed, among experts, very ambitious, if not impossible.

Since then, we came a long way through ten KJ Shuttle conferences in Korea and Japan with the ROK team members; both of the teams grew in size and composition in the course of past two years. At the beginning, scholars were majoriry, but later, navy and army have strong representation as well.

Four trilateral conferences among the ROK, Japan and the US teamswere also held in Hawaii, Tokyo and Seoul. The US team was organized by Pacific Forum CSIS.

Today's conference is the fourteenth official encounter for the ROK and Japan teams.

In retrospect, I remember Carl Ford's clear statement that he couldn't believe witnessing the Koreans and Japanese are talking, as friends, security issues in front of him at the first trilateral conference in Hawaii as early as October 1997. He explained why he was so impressed; the Koreans who visited him always wanted to have private dialogue with him, and eventually request him not to disclose what they have discussed to the Japanese, and the Japanese visted the next day, and did the same regarding the Koreans. He was litterally surprised to see the friendliness and progress that the KJ Shuttles were providing.

The KJ Shuttle dialogues evolved beyond anyone's expectation. Both teams became willing to convene in every other months to exchange fresh ideas. In June 1998, the Japan team invited the Korea team to Kure and Edajima, home ports for JMSDF and the Japanese Imperial Navy respectively (the Sixth KJ Shuttle). Ambassador Gong Ro-Myung made a speech at the Cadet School in Edajima in Japanese language. The Korea team was soon to return invitation so that the Eighth KJ Shuttle was held in Masan and Jinhae, home port for ROK Navy. This Eighth Shuttle was a breakthrough as 15 Koreans and 15 Japanese participated in the simulation game; both teams formed governments, parties and mass media. The control team provided injects to both countries' representatives; a hypothetical case of a missing Korean tanker in the area between Pusan and Okinawa was used. In the game, ROK Navy chased North Korean submarines which snaked into the Japanese territorial water. A very similar event took place three months later. What we learned becam instantly usuful in the real world.

In February 1999, the second simulation game was held at a Hakone hot spring hotel (the tenth KJ Shuttle). The hyphotetical case used was a joint PKO activities between ROK Army and JGSDF in Myanmar in 2005. A very similar event may take place in East Timor this year.

Professor Rhee made it clear that we learn a lot from these simulation games. They are unprecedented as we have "the real Japanese" instead of "the Koreans playing roles of Japanese cabinet members," according to him. The same is true for us. Professor Rhee said at the end of the Hakone game session, that it will be very useful to have three or four more games together, it is agreed that the ROK and Japan teams continue the game program.

On October 8, president Kim Dae Jung visited Japan to open a new horizon: ROK-Japan security relations that have been considered to be impossible. Both ROK and Japan teams were in Korea. We celebrated the progress on the deck of ROK Navy's frigate ship as she sailed from Jinhae to Pusan at the occasion of the International Fleet Review.

Our KJ project has been clearly ahead of time and we are sure that our team members could inject creative thoughts to both governments and key agencies. Now, many members have submitted papers and comments to the conferences (see our homepage. http://www.glocomnet.or.jp/okazaki-inst/okazaki-jap.html �j. We are confident that we are part of the emerging history, if not we are making it, of the 21 century ROK-Japan relations.

As I described most of the findings and thoughts in my recent paper, I have, here, few things to note.

1) "creative reconciliation." Many Korean experts have privately told me that Korea-Japan reconciliation is a matter of time. However, if it would happen, there would be two different types; a "good reconciliation" or a "less good reconciliation." The good one is the reconciliation with mutually knowing the past, present and future of two parties while the "less good one" could be a product of benign forgettingness especially as old generations fade out by time. These two cases maybe otherwise called, "creative reconciliation" and "spontaneous reconciliation." The former endures better as it is the product of conscious effort and our reconciliation can be a powerful model for the others as Korea-Japan animosity is known worldwide. The latter is more likely to happen as the two peoples would be more intertwined in economic and security issues in decades to come than the past. Both cases will certainly provide positive impact on future Sino-Japanese relations but the "creative KJ reconciliation" type should have a greater impact than the other which sloppy-mindedness can be a dominant element to advance reconciliation.

2) Learning from the past. In my paper, I couldn't introduce the full story of the 1965 normalization between the ROK and Japan. Leaders of two nations fixed the long-time deteriorated relations in three days in Seoul. Attached is the case history which seems to have been forgotten, however, it is worth being remembered.

3) Drinking Company. I had various occasions, in the past two years, to share our KJ Shuttle experience with experts in Beijing, Washington, Canberra, Seoul and other places. The first reaction from the audience has been always:"I can't believe in it." A prominent scholar even told me: "In theory, it can't happen as no document supports it." Then, the after thought can be:"Tell me more about it." And the last statement has been usually very positive even in Beijing:"Could we join in?"

We know that everyone is suspicious, to some extent, about "remilitarization" of Japan, but also everyone expect future Japan to be a fully participating member responsible for the regional security and stability.

Experts know that Japan has a tremendous military assets---190 F15s, four Aegis cruisers, etc. But as she is not trusted, the asset had been used only for homeland security during the cold war. Recent ROK-Japan security dialogues and the 1996 Hashimoto-Clinton joint declaration have made Japan to be a little active in "rear area" support. Still, the Japanese Forces remains a great hidden asset.

But here is, at least, a voice from Australia to encourage Japan. "The main message to get across, I would think, is that it's safe for Japan to start drinking again, as long as it's done in good company. And Australia needs to join in the company! The reference is to Lee Kuan Yew's statement a few years ago that encouraging Japan to engage in peacekeeping was like offering a drink to a recovering alcoholic. The problem with Lee's view is that the Gulf war pointed to more pressing dangers - that if Japan continues to think that its security problems are for others to solve, the US might well conclude that Japan is not worth defending." (Robyn Lim's paper for the Freedom of Navigaion Studies, April 1999)

The recent Economist (February 27, 1999, p.p.15-16.) echoed it. "As Japan prospered under America's protection, it prided itself on being a 'civilian' power: using its trade and aid to encourage stability in the region. But such cold-war comforts are no longer on offer...Hence, the need for japan to be seen to be doing more....in a real shooting crisis, Japan's planned new role would scarcely suffice...It would take years to redraft the constitution. However, the relevant war-renouncing parts rightly did not stop Japan building its Self-Defense Forces and, if its politicians so decide, need not bar Japan from playing a more active role in collective self-defence (a right of sovereign states under the UN charter.)"

In sum, Korea is a big factor for Japan's future. If Korea forgave Japan and talked highly of her, she would have voice to the other nations. If Korea encouraged Japan, the younger generation of her would be more assertive. Unless gaining healthy assertiveness, Japan's younger generation can't fully usetilize her assets for the betterment of the region, if not the world. Korea has, indeed, the key.

Finally, I feel privileged to be a part of the historic KJ Shuttle dialogues. Only a couple of hundred experts have directly participated in the past exchanges, however, it has produced a creative thoughts for policy formation and public dissemination.

What was thought impossible to imagine a couple of years ago ---ROK-Japan security dialogue-- has become a routine government business.

ROK-Japan relations would evolve as we approach a magic number 2002 for cohosting the World Cup. President Kim Dae Jung has invited Japanese Emperor to visit Korea, for the first time in history, before 2002. Not only China and the US, but Australia and other Asian countries are watching ROK-Japan evolving relations.